Top 14: Four-way battle for survival between Dax, Toulon, Bourgoin and Castres

08 May 2009

With all four play-off spots already guaranteed the spotlight this weekend falls on the desperate scrap for survival still going on at the other end.

Mont-de-Marsan bid adieu to Top 14 after they lost away to Dax in the last round of matches, but four other clubs – Castres, Toulon, Bourgoin and Dax themselves - go into this weekend knowing they too could join Les Montois in falling through the trap door to ProD2.

Amazingly, all four of those teams are in action in two nail-biting fixtures as Dax play host to Toulon tonight (Friday), and Castres travel to Bourgoin on Saturday afternoon.

The permutations are numerous and get a little tricky, so you’ll have to bear with me on this, but suffice to say the one-from-four equation should be somewhat simplified come Saturday evening – if not completely resolved.

Dax (currently 13^th) remain the relegation favourites, but a home win against Toulon would set up an almighty last-day showdown when nerves – and which team handles them best – could play a key role in the outcome.

Top 14 Table / Top 14 Fixtures / Top 14 Transfers

Bourgoin were the only Top 14 side in competitive action last weekend – beating Worcester in the European Challenge Cup semi-final – and it remains to be seen whether their energy levels have been either been sapped (by the extra game) or boosted (by the morale-lifting result) for their home clash with Castres.

Elsewhere, the other key battle remains the three-way race for Heineken Cup qualification between Biarritz (5^th), Bayonne (6^th) and Brive (7^th). Just two points separate the trio at present, with Brive (at home to Montpellier) looking to have the easier match this weekend. The ambitious Limousin club needs to stop a four-match losing streak to have any chance of achieving their goal after an energy sapping season, and Montpellier at home should present the perfect opportunity to make up ground as Biarritz (away to Stade Francais) and Bayonne (at home to Stade Toulousain) both face tough assignments.

The weekend’s other two games sees leaders Perpignan play their final match of the season at the Stade Aime Giral (against Montauban), while Clermont Auvergne (the division’s highest scorers) continue their play-off preparations by welcoming already relegated Mont-de-Marsan.

It’s all set for another nerve-jangling weekend of action as the emotional rollercoaster of the Top 14 season draws to a thrilling climax.

Dax v Toulon (Stade Maurice Boyau, 20.35, 08/05/09)

What a way to start the weekend as Dax ‘entertain’ Toulon in a knife-edge relegation battle at Stade Maurice Boyau, and with so much potentially resting on the result of this match it is difficult to know where to start. Dax remain favourites to join Mont-de-Marsan in dropping down to ProD2, but a win here would really set the proverbial cat among the pigeons. Not only could it possibly save Dax’s Top 14 skin – although that would not be confirmed until the final weekend – it could also set into motion a whole chain of events that could ultimately end with Bourgoin winning the European Challenge Cup but being unable to take up their Heineken Cup invite due to playing next season in ProD2. Stay with me here. That, obviously, would also be dependent on Bourgoin losing at home to Castres. But, should Dax prove victorious against Toulon then the latter would also go into the final weekend uncertain of their own Top 14 status. Conversely, a win here would absolutely guarantee Toulon’s survival, and pave the way for a certain Monsieur Wilkinson to be unveiled as Mourad Boudjellal’s latest high-profile signing next week. Still with me?

In essence, then, Dax know they must win to keep their own survival hopes alive, unless… well, let’s not get into that now, except to say that those stern fellows at the DNACG – the league’s financial watchdog – could yet have the last word on the relegation issue, as they did last year when Dax only avoided mathematical relegation due to SCA Albi’s punishment for financial irregularities. Bourgoin – yes, they of many permutations – are the potential fall guys this season. To add a further bizarre note to the equation, both teams go into this match on the back of decent form. Dax have won their past two games – 20-15 away to Montauban, and 12-8 at home to Mont-de-Marsan – as they collected as many points (eight) as in their previous 11 matches, while Toulon have won two of their last three, including a stunning 14-6 victory against Stade Toulousain. The home side would ideally like a bonus point win – their first of the season – but Toulon’s attacking calibre could win out as they have scored 12 (or 50%) more tries than their hosts – 36 to 24. I’m sure Dax coach Thomas Lièvremont would settle for a re-run of their 13-6 away win at Toulon back in December.
Verdict: Toulon win

Perpignan v Montauban (Stade Aimé Giral, 14.30, 09/05/09)

Leaders Perpignan will be looking to sign off in style as they play their final home game of the season, and mid-table Montauban should be there for the taking as they essentially have nothing but pride to play for. The Catalans’ quest for a first Championship since 1955 has gathered increasing momentum throughout the season and they go into this match with just two league defeats – away to Bayonne and Biarritz – since mid-November. Their 20-16 home win against Clermont Auvergne in Round 24 further underscored their current good form, and all this despite losing All Black fly-half Dan Carter after just five games. Perpignan’s coaching set up has decided to rest some weary legs this weekend – Maxime Mermoz, Farid Sid, Kisi Pulu and Nathan Hines – but they should still be far too strong for a Montauban side that hasn’t won on the road for six months (since beating Clermont at the back end of October).  The Catalans welcome back Christophe Manas, Jean-Philippe Grandclaude, Jean-Pierre Perez and Julien Candelon, while Montauban will have to make do without Sylvain Jonnet, Scott Murray, Marc Raynaud and Miguel Avramovic.
Verdict: Perpignan win

Bourgoin v Castres (14.30, Stade Pierre Rajon, 14.30, 09/05/09) 

Part deux of the relegation conundrum sees Bourgoin welcome Castres for the first of two successive home games at the Stade Pierre Rajon. Limbs and heads could still be tired from last weekend’s victory over Worcester (in the ECC semi-final) but it’s back to the business of Top 14 survival on Saturday as they take on a Castres side still not clear of danger themselves following consecutive defeats to Mont-de-Marsan and Stade Francais. Departing captain Lionel Nallet vowed to leave (for Racing-Metro 92) with his side’s safety assured, but home wins for Bourgoin and Dax could see the visitors go into the final weekend (when they are at home to leaders Perpignan) with as little as a one-point advantage over the final relegation slot. They will also have to make do without injured France scrum-half Sebastien Tillous-Borde. Bourgoin, by comparison, have been boosted in recent weeks by the outstanding form of their own French scrum-half, Morgan Parra, and will be looking to recapture the success of last week’s European performance. The threat of relegation by the DNACG continues to haunt the home side, but all the players can do is continue winning their games and let the board try and settle the club’s ongoing financial concerns. Scoring tries has been their main problem this season – only 24 – so Parra’s boot could yet prove decisive.
Verdict: Bourgoin win 

Clermont Auvergne v Mont-de-Marsan (Stade Marcel Michelin, 14.30, 09/05/09)

Clermont continue their play-off preparations with the first of two home games, possibly against both relegated teams. This weekend it’s Mont-de-Marsan who face the daunting task of travelling to the division’s top scorers, while next week Dax follow on with their fate conceivably already sealed. Neither side should present serious problems to a team which has already racked up the most points (613) and the most tries (59), and which also boasts the highest individual points scorer (Brock James - 272) and top try scorer (Napolioni Nalaga – 15). If all that wasn’t daunting enough then Les Montois know they will be taking on a Clermont keen to cast aside memories of their 20-16 defeat to Perpignan in Round 24. James, who was rested against the Catalans, is back for Les Jaunards, along with Nalaga and Benoit Baby. At least Mont-de-Marsan can play without fear, having already been relegated, but the loss of goal-kicker Jean-Marc Mazzonetto is a blow they could have done without.
Verdict: Clermont win

Brive v Montpellier (Stade Amédée Domenech, 14.30, 09/05/09)

The stakes could not be higher for Brive as they enter the final two rounds knowing that Heineken Cup qualification remains within their grasp. The big-spending Limousin club appeared nailed-on for top level European rugby just a month back, but since then team confidence has taken a severe pounding on the back of four successive defeats – three in the league and one in the ECC. Losses to Stade Toulousain and Clermont Auvergne were perhaps to be expected, but a 15-10 reverse away to Montauban in Round 24 was a major blow. Not only was it confirmation of tiring limbs, but the result also allowed Biarritz to leapfrog them. Brive now enter this weekend with ground to make up – they are currently seventh – but a good home win against Montpellier – who have little to play for – could see them right back in contention, especially if Biarritz (away to Stade Francais) and Bayonne (at home to Stade Toulousain) should slip up. “We are 160 minutes away from our goal,” confirmed scrum-half Jean-Baptiste Péjoine this week. The kicking form of England fly-half Andy Goode (201 points and counting) is again likely to be crucial, and Brive will be cheered by the fact Montpellier have not won away from home since beating Castres 31-26 on January 11^th.
Verdict: Brive win

Bayonne v Stade Toulousain (Stade Jean Dauger, 16.30, 09/05/09)

Stade Toulousain may not be the ideal team to play when you desperately need a win – as Bayonne do – but the defending champions have been strangely vulnerable of late and have only scored one try in three games since demolishing Brive at the start of April. The subsequent three matches have brought two defeats – at Cardiff and Toulon – and an unconvincing 13-6 home win against an understrength Bourgoin, and even that was only achieved through a late Maleli Kunavore score. David Skrela is likely to resume the fly-half responsibilities with Jean-Baptiste Elissalde still sidelined, and the week’s rest will have allowed further recuperation for Stade’s galaxy of international stars. Bayonne have also struggled for results of late, losing three of their last four league games. The one exception was the 61-10 thumping of Bourgoin. With points at an absolute premium Bayonne know they must try and reassert the fortress Jean Dauger status, and with Stade Francais to follow next week there can simply be no avoiding the need to win at least one (if not both) of their remaining fixtures. However, to beat Stade Toulousain they will have to overcome the league’s most miserly defence. David Roumieu, Julien Puricelli, Pierre-Philippe Lafond and Benjamin Fall are all doubtful for Bayonne, while Romain Millo-Chluski, Patricio Albacete, William Servat and Cedric Heymans have recovered sufficiently to travel as part of the champions’ squad.
Verdict: Stade Toulousain win

Stade Francais v Biarritz (Stade Jean Bouin, 20.45, 10/05/09)

The form of both these sides has greatly changed since they last met, back at the Sports Aguilera in late November. On that occasion Stade Francais ran out 32-13 winners as they continued their impressive early season form. Biarritz, by contrast, were in the midst of an eight-match losing streak which threatened to completely derail their season – until their recent revival offered hope where none had any right to be found. The once-mighty Basques have rediscovered their team unity and the desire to win, travelling to Paris on the back four successive victories – and eight wins in their last 10. If they could add the scalp of Stade Francais to those of Clermont Auvergne, Perpignan and Stade Toulousian, they will have beaten all four semi-finalists - and their greatest local rivals too (Bayonne) – during that run. Victory in Paris would also virtually assure them of a Heineken Cup slot, with just Montauban at home to come. But Stade Francais have their own agenda to follow and will be keen to carry on the momentum of successive wins – against Montpellier and Castres – after four defeats in their previous five games. Like the other Stade – Toulousain – they have been strangely inconsistent of late, and know that Clermont and Perpignan are both building impressively for the forthcoming play-offs. Stade Francais will be without injured scrum-half Agustin Pichot, who is now doubtful for the play-offs too. Look out for the new Stade Francais shirt – officially next year’s jersey – which will receive a trial run. Going on past efforts spectators might be advised to take a pair of sunglasses.
Verdict: Biarritz win

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