Top 14 - Round 12 Preview
28 November 2008
It’s round 12 of Top 14, the penultimate
round before the halfway mark, and this week’s fixtures are
dominated by the top-two clash between Toulouse and Bayonne.
The Ernest-Wallon stadium is sold out yet
again for the Friday night match, with Toulouse looking to
open up clear water between themselves and the chasing pack.
There is also a fascinating English battle in
the Montpellier-Brive clash as former Leicester Tigers
team-mates Ollie Smith and Andy Goode come up in direct
opposition to one another.
Elsewhere, Toulon will be looking to build on
last week’s success when they take on fellow strugglers Dax,
while Castres and Bourgoin also do battle in another vital
match for the team’s fighting to avoid the drop.
Up at the other end would-be leaders
Perpignan travel to Montauban as they seek to recover after
last week’s reverse at Clermont, while Stade Francais travel
to play a Biarritz side which has lost its last three games.
As ever, I’ll be putting my reputation on the
block as I seek to go one better than last week’s six out of
seven correct predictions.
Toulouse v Bayonne (20.35,
28/11/08)
Leaders Toulouse play host to surprise
high-fliers Bayonne in a top-two clash fit for it’s Friday
night primetime billing. The defending champions struggled
for fluency in the past two rounds with their roster of
internationals absent with their respective countries, but
their narrow wins against Toulon and Bourgoin ensured they
remained in top spot.
Now they have their internationals back with
Yannick Jauzion, Maxime Medard and Millo-Chluski all in
their starting XV, although fly-half David Skrela sits this
one out after picking up an adductor injury during the week.
That means a third successive start for the misfiring
Freddie Michalak, with Byron Kelleher at No 9 ahead of
Jean-Baptiste Elissalde.
Bayonne travel full of confidence after four
successive wins, including last week’s 42-9 rout of
Montpellier.
Verdict: Toulouse win.
Castres v Bourgoin (14.30,
29/11/08)
Castres have the chance to pull clear of
relegation rivals Bourgoin in this crucial drop-zone
encounter at Stade Pierre Antoine.
They will be looking to replicate their 26-3
victory over basement club Mont-de-Marsan two weeks ago, a
match in which recently arrived All Black Chris Masoe played
an inspirational role.
Bourgoin, for their part, arrive deep in the
mire after six defeats in their last seven league games,
although only one of those (a 10-32 reverse at Dax) was by
more than seven points.
Off-field concerns continue to cast a pall
over the visitors, and defeat at Castres would be a serious
blow to their survival aspirations.
Verdict: Castres win.
Clermont v Mont-de-Marsan (14.30, 29/11/08)
Clermont, last year’s runners-up, have been
wildly inconsistent so far this season, but home wins
against Toulouse, Stade Francais and Perpignan confirm their
ability to live with the best.
A home match against basement club
Mont-de-Marsan should not provide too much heartache, even
after Les Montois’ victory over Dax last weekend, and the
hosts will again be buoyed by the inclusion of club captain
Aurélien Rougerie.
Realistically, the best the visitors can hope
for is damage limitation, with perhaps the outside chance of
squeezing a defensive bonus point.
Verdict: Clermont win.
Montauban v Perpignan (14.30,
29/11/08)
Perpignan’s charge up the table was
temporarily derailed at Clermont last week and the Catalans
face another tough trip when they travel to Montauban this
weekend.
Their hosts have won four out of five home
games – only losing to Toulouse – and have found a rare
fluency in the past few weeks that has seen them average 30
points a match in their last four games.
For Perpignan this is their final league game
BC – Before Carter – and they will be desperate to show the
All Blacks’ fly-half they are a worthy destination for his
undoubted talents.
Verdict: Montauban win.
Toulon v Dax (14.30,
29/11/08)
Tana Umaga’s Toulon continue to attract more
column inches than any other Top 14 club, but the general
tenor of the coverage may be changing for the better
following their 10-5 home win against Biarritz last week.
The recent arrival of South African second
row Ross Skeate and assistant coach Aubin Hueber appears to
be paying dividends, and the visit of Dax offers the
opportunity for the club to record back-to-back wins for the
first time this season.
Dax, meanwhile, arrive without a win in three
and with both clubs hovering perilously above the relegation
zone this is a match of huge significance.
Thomas Lièvremont’s charges need something
from this game to stay above Toulon, their immediate league
rivals, but the momentum appears to be with their hosts at
present.
Verdict: Toulon win.
Biarritz v Stade Francais
(16.30, 29/11/08)
Three successive defeats has led to some
awkward questions being asked at Biarritz, and this week saw
the first answer – the sacking of forwards coach Jacques
Delmas to be replaced by Jean-Michel Gonzalez.
That alone is unlikely to bring immediate
relief, especially with Stade Francais due in town on
Saturday afternoon as they face up to the prospect of a
fourth successive defeat.
The visitors will again be without
first-choice fly-halves Juan Martin Hernandez and Lionel
Beauxis – both injured – meaning centre Guillaume Bousses
will continue at No 10. A 19-12 win against Castres last
week ended their own three-match losing streak, and they
could prove too strong for the struggling Basque club this
weekend.
Verdict: Stade Francais win.
Montpellier v Brive (20.45,
29/11/08)
Sixth versus ninth should equate to a tough
encounter for both sides, but injuries have stripped the
home side of a clutch of players – including Francois
Trinh-Duc, Frederico Todeschini, Justin Marshall, Danie
Thiart, Warren Britz and Mickael Ladhuie - forcing centre
Ollie Smith to take up the fly-half reins. That would be
interesting enough on its own, but the fact he will now be
in direct opposition to former Leicester team-mate Andy
Goode makes for an even more fascinating evening.
Montpellier won their last home match 26-13
against Stade Francais, but they were spanked 42-9 in
Bourgoin last week as they fell apart in a demoralising
second half. This is a crucial match for both teams’
European aspirations with Brive arriving bolstered by
successive home wins against Clermont and Montauban.
The hosts will at least be able to include
returning internationals Fulgence Ouedraogo, Louis Picamoles
and Julien Tomas.
Verdict: Brive win.
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