Top 14 - Round 11 Preview
21 November 2008
Here we go again with another fascinating
round of matches in Top 14 as the season draws inexorably
towards the halfway stage. Defending champions Toulouse
travel to lowly Bourgoin as they seek to consolidate top
spot but there are a number of intriguing match-ups as
international duties continue to play havoc with the clubs.
Most notably early-season leaders Stade Francais will be
keen to get their show back on the road after three
successive defeats, while Clermont – last year’s runners-up
– entertain championship chasing Perpignan on Saturday
evening.
My reputation, such as it is, goes on the
line again with my round 11 predictions, hoping to go one
better than last week’s 6 out of 7 correct calls.
Once more it’s all to play for, with four
teams in contention for the leaders’ spot, while Toulon and
Bourgoin battle to escape the drop zone. Should be another
good one.
Bourgoin v Toulouse (19.00,
21/11/08)
The November internationals may have
seriously weakened Toulouse but the fixture list has been
kind to the defending champions: last week they hosted
struggling Toulon – squeaking to a 19-18 win - and now they
head to Bourgoin, another club in serious freefall after a
run of five defeats in their last six league games.
Toulouse, on the other hand, have won six on the spin and
will be hoping that Freddie Michalak rediscovers his kicking
form after his wayward return against Toulon.
Verdict: Toulouse win.
Stade Francais v Castres
(21.00, 21/11/08)
A month ago this would have looked a nailed
on certainty for Stade Francais with the Paris club riding
high on the back of seven straight wins and Castres
struggling to lift themselves out of the relegation zone.
But four weeks on and the picture is very different with
Stade now buckling after three successive defeats and
Castres buoyed by last week’s 26-3 demolition of
Mont-de-Marsan, in which debutant All Black Chris Masoe had
an outstanding game. Stade, like Toulouse, have been hit by
international calls but should still be strong enough to
stop the rot. Rugby league convert Marc Gasnier could play
at centre as he continues his union education.
Verdict: Stade Francais win.
Bayonne v Montpellier (14.30,
22/11/08)
High-flying Bayonne return home after a
fortnight on the road that saw them record impressive away
wins at Bourgoin and Biarritz, results that have helped lift
them to the dizzy heights of third in Top 14. No-one
expected the Basque club to be above Stade Francais at this
stage, but their propensity for grinding out narrow
victories has resulted in the strange record of eight wins
from 10, but a negative points aggregate of -5. Only the
bottom three clubs (Toulon, Bourgoin and Monte-de-Marsan)
have scored less points than Bayonne’s 172, but, conversely,
only three have also conceded more (Toulouse, Perpignan and
Biarritz). Fifth-placed Montpellier go into the game boosted
by last week’s 26-13 home win against Stade Francais.
Verdict: Bayonne win.
Brive v
Montauban (14.30, 22/11/08)
Brive may be down in ninth spot but the
fixture list contrived against them, with six of their first
nine games away from home. Now they have got through that
they have the chance to further climb the table, building on
last week’s 18-16 victory over Clermont when former
Leicester fly-half Andy Goode was again in impressive form.
Montauban have also been in good form of late but will miss
the try-scoring potency of Vilimoni Delasau, who is away
with the Pacific Islanders.
Verdict: Brive win.
Mont-de-Marsan v Dax (14.30,
22/11/08)
At the beginning of the season this would
have been marked down as a relegation battle but Dax have
managed four wins and a draw from their last seven games in
a burst of form that has seen Tomas Lievremont’s team climb
to 10th. Les Montois, on the other hand, have
fulfilled pre-season predictions with just one win from 10
and lie rooted at the foot of the table with the worst
attacking and defensive records in the league. If they ship
another 16 points this weekend that will be an incredible
300 for the season already, and highlights just why they
have struggled to adapt.
Verdict: Dax win.
Toulon v Biarritz (14.30,
22/11/08)
A run of five successive defeats is not the
kind of form to inspire confidence but such has been the
paucity of good news for Toulon of late that their latest
reverse – a narrow 19-18 defeat in Toulouse – should be
taken as a massive positive. Tana Umaga’s high-profile flops
are showing signs of beginning to gel as a unit. Joe van
Niekerk and Jerry Collins continue to set the example and
Orene Ai’i has also been drawing the plaudits at full-back.
Eighth-placed Biarritz continue to fluctuate in form and
arrive on the back of defeats to Bayonne and Perpignan. Form
still indicates an away win but I have a hunch that this
could be Toulon’s weekend.
Verdict: Toulon win.
Clermont v Perpignan (16.30,
22/22/08)
The final game of the weekend sees last
year’s runners up entertain the team currently in second
spot in what could be the clash of round 11. The hosts find
themselves down in sixth after their latest reverse, an
18-16 defeat away to Brive, but their Catalan visitors are
level on points with leaders Toulouse following an
impressive eight wins from 10. The imminent arrival of Dan
Carter draws ever closer but Perpignan will have to reverse
a record of 14 defeats from 16 at Clermont if they are to
extend that form. Les Jaunards will again be reliant on the
boot of Brock James, especially with top try-scorer
Napoleoni Nalaga unavailable for the next three weeks.
Verdict: Clermont win.
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