After 26 rounds of blood, sweat and tears the French Top 14 Championship enters its penultimate weekend tonight with the first of two play-off semi-finals as Stade Toulousain take on Clermont Auvergne in Bordeaux.

Defending champions Stade Toulousain may have the psychological edge having won last year’s final 26-20 against Vern Cotter’s men, but Les Jaunards have been irresistible of late and are desperate to finally land their maiden Bouclier Brennus after nine final defeats.

Top 14 Table / Top 14 Fixtures / Top 14 Transfers - The story so far...

The other semi-final (on Saturday) sees league toppers Perpignan take on stuttering Stade Francais in Lyon as the Catalans seek their first Championship title in 54 years. Dan Carter may have only played five matches for Perpignan this season, but injuries brought a unity and togetherness that has served them well throughout their campaign, and they now stand on the verge of their first final since going down to Stade Francais 38-20 in 2004.

Could it be that revenge is in the air, for both Clermont and Perpignan? A Betting man would find it hard not to back Stade Toulousain, with their 17 Championships and a squad brimming with international savvy, but Clermont must surely end their disappointment at some stage.

As ever, we’ll keep you briefed of all developments here on frenchrugbyclub.com, as well as keeping tabs on Sunday’s ProD2 play-off final between SCA Albi and surprise package Oyonnax.

Stade Toulousain v Clermont Auvergne (at Bordeaux, 29/05/09, 20.45)

Seventeen titles plays none. It looks a straightforward equation when written like that, with Stade Toulousain’s overwhelming wealth of experience positively smothering the lofty ambitions of the Michelin-backed Clermont Auvergne. Winning, as sports coaches endlessly point out, becomes a habit, and Stade Toulousain appear hooked to the core, and yet… there’s a nagging feeling that all is not quite right with Guy Noves’ team. Their disappointing Heineken Cup exit highlighted a lack of cutting edge as they failed to break down Cardiff’s defence, and their faltering form in the second half of the season was strangely muted.

Having said that, Noves has now had his troops together for a rare two-week period and no one knows better how to prepare a team for the final phases than the wise old Toulousain sage. There’s no doubt his team has the required firepower with a back line to make most international coaches turn green with envy, but the fluidity has only come in fits and bursts this term. Perhaps it is all part of the Noves masterplan, saving the best until last. They remain the bookies’ favourites and their foundations have been built on a rock solid defence this season – the tightest in Top 14 with just 324 points conceded in 26 games.

Byron Kelleher interview: 'Winning is not enough for us - we like to win with flair' 

However, if there’s one team equipped to break down the mighty red and black barrier then it’s free-scoring Clermont Auvergne, who amassed a mighty 754 points during the league campaign – a whopping 160 more than their illustrious opponents. They boast both the league’s top try-scorer – Napolioni Nalaga, with 20 – and the leading points-scorer – Brock James with 303 – and they finished the regular season in scorching form as they ran in 138 points in their final two games. Winger Julien Malzieu may be injured but Nalaga is a try-scoring phenomenon who can destroy any defence on his given day – which is most weekends. He has double the number of tries of his closest rivals year, and has superseded his own Top 14 record of 18, which he set last season. And the young Fijian was certainly in confident mood during the week. “I’m ready for this semi-final,” he said. “It doesn’t matter whether I’m up against Vincent Clerc, Cedric Heymans or whoever else.”

But Clermont are far from a one-man team, with full-back Anthony Floch (nine tries) and winger and captain Aurélien Rougerie (seven tries) both enjoying fine seasons, while James remains the division’s best kicker by some distance. Indeed, it is the Australian’s boot which I believe could make the difference tonight as the two heavyweights do battle. It is an area of the game where Clermont definitely have the edge over Stade Toulousain, whose own kicking duties have been shared by David Skrela, Jean-Baptiste Elissalde and Frederic Michalak this season.

It’s such a tough game to call. Will experience win out against ambition, or have Clermont finally got the formula right to go all the way? Cotter certainly believes that Clermont are stronger since losing last year’s final. “I think the team has again made progress,” said the Kiwi coach. “We are again the best attacking side this season and second in defence. There’s been an improvement in our game but we know that everything goes back to zero in the play-offs.”

My hunch is for a Clermont win, but only a fool would bet against Stade Toulousain...

Verdict: Clermont Auvergne to win

Perpignan v Stade Francais (at Lyon, 30/05/09, 16.30)

The contrast in form between these two sides going in to the play-offs could not be more stark, and statistics alone would indicate a routine win for table toppers Perpignan as they continue their quest for a first French title since 1955. The Catalans won eight of their closing nine games in the regular season, including victories against Stade Toulousain and Clermont Auvergne as they brought a rare consistency to their performances.

Stade Francais, on the other hand, ended with five defeats in their last seven games as they crashed to Montauban, Stade Toulousain, Clermont Auvergne, Biarritz and Bayonne. They finished a mammoth 14 points behind Perpignan in the table and their nine-match winning streak with which they opened the season now seems light years away. Since then the Paris club has consistently faltered against quality teams, registering just a single win in six matches against the other play-off contenders and falling both at home and away to Harlequins in the Heineken Cup.

Everything points to a Perpignan win, and yet one-off games have a tendency to throw logic out of the window, as Oyonnax showed in beating SU Agen in last week’s ProD2 shootout. Stade Francais have no right to expect a win, and that’s what could make them dangerous in Lyon on Saturday. Ewen McKenzie’s men have nothing to lose, while Perpignan could yet be weighed down by the dual weight of hope and expectancy. Fifty four years is a mighty long time for a club of Perpignan’s stature to wait for a title, and that can leave its own scars.

But the Catalans’ strength this year has been their unity. Indeed, the injury to Carter may have been a blessing in disguise as it forced them to cope without their star player, ensuring a shared responsibility rather than a reliance on one uber-talent. The result has been a tight-knit group that has continually shown an ability to rise to the occasion.

There’s no doubt, though, that Stade Francais have the ability to triumph, especially with the likes of potential match-winners Juan Martin Hernandez, Sergio Parisse and Mark Gasnier in their ranks. Like the first semi-final it is yet another tough one to call, but I suspect Perpignan’s growing self-belief should see them through against a side which has already shown its mental fragility on numerous occasions this season.

Verdict: Perpignan win