Top 14: Pivotal weekend sees all but the final pieces of the season's jigsaw in place

Before Bourgoin thrashed Dax so resoundingly on Friday night any number of permutations were possible as teams vied for Top 14 survival, play-off places and Heineken Cup qualification. Two days later and most of those options now appear more or less done and dusted.

In sport there is always room for the truly unexpected – witness Saturday’s 100/1 shot winner in the Grand National – but logic also applies too, and “the league table doesn’t lie”, as managers routinely like to trot out at this time of year.

So, what has been resolved after Round 22?

The play-offs:

It now looks increasingly likely that the teams currently occupying the top four berths will be those that compete the end of season play-offs. Stade Toulousain’s authoritative 42-10 win in Brive effectively ended the latter’s chances, especially after Clermont Auvergne’s narrow triumph in Paris. The combination of those two results means there is now an eight-point gap between Clermont (4^th) and Brive (5^th).  That is a massive differential with only four games to go, even with those two sides set to meet at the Stade Marcel Michelin in Round 23. A Brive win there would undoubtedly re-open the intrigue, but Clermont have been in bombastic form at home of late, and they also have the advantage of a free weekend ahead, while Brive travel to Worcester for their ECC quarter-final.

Top 14 Table / Top 14 Fixtures

Stade Francais’ worrying dip in form will certainly be causing Ewen McKenzie serious concern – four league defeats in five – but they are still nine and 12 points clear of Brive (5^th) and Bayonne (6^th) respectively, surely enough of a cushion to secure their presence in the play-offs.
Having said that, the men in pink have been distinctly off colour this season against fellow play-off rivals, and even backs coach Christophe Dominici was moved to admit after Saturday’s defeat that they have a “big team syndrome”.

They have now been beaten at home and away by both Stade Toulousain and Clermont Auvergne, were held to a 13-13 home draw by Perpignan, and went down 26-11 at Brive. They should win their next two games – at home to Montpellier and away to Castres – but then face Biarritz (h) and Bayonne (a) in their final two matches.

“There are some players who think wearing the Stade Francais jersey is enough to win games. It is more complicated that that,” Dominici ruefully observed on Saturday.

Heineken Cup qualification:

With the top four teams all looking secure this has now effectively become a two from three scenario thanks to Biarritz’s 19-15 triumph in Bayonne on Saturday evening. As things stand Brive have 59 points, Bayonne 56 and Biarritz 54. Those gaps could be further blurred after Round 23, especially should Brive tumble at Clermont – which has to be considered the most likely outcome. Bayonne and Biarritz, by contrast, both have winnable home games with Bourgoin and Perpignan their respective opponents. Bourgoin may feel they have already done enough to ensure Top 14 survival – keeping their powder dry for a closing duo of home games against Castres and Brive – while Perpignan are already secure in second place with a 10-point lead over Stade Francais. Of the three challengers Biarritz are now the form team as they carry the momentum of five wins from seven, including victories over Clermont, Stade Toulousain and, of course, Bayonne. The Basque duo both have three of their four matches at home – a distinct advantage – whereas Brive must play three of their games on the road, but this is a race that is likely to go right to the wire and is too close to call.
Remaining Fixtures
Brive (59pts): Clermont Auvergne (a), Montauban (a), Montpellier (h), Bourgoin (a)
Bayonne (56pts): Bourgoin (h), Montpellier (a), Stade Toulousain (h), Stade Francais (h).
Biarritz (54pts): Perpignan (h), Toulon (h), Stade Francais (a), Montauban (h)

The drop zone:

Dax and Mont-de-Marsan both entered Round 22 knowing that points were at an absolute premium, but both were comprehensively stuffed, while the three teams immediately above them all won. This has, to all intents and purposes, ended the battle for Top 14 survival.

Mont-de-Marsan appeared to raise the white flag as they put out a weakened team for their trip to Perpignan, with all too predictable consequences – they lost 44-3. Dax, on the other hand, went to Bourgoin knowing a win would reignite their own chances of survival. Three tries in the final eight minutes may have lent the scoreboard a somewhat slanted appearance, but losing 43-6 in a match they had to win merely underlined their current prospects. The defeat was their 10^th on the trot in the league and looks to have finally sealed their fate.

They still may have had hope if other results had gone their way but Toulon, who have been improving for months now, gave themselves a welcome boost with a 33-20 home win against Montauban, and Castres won 23-21 at Montpellier to make it three wins from four.

Thus, with runaway ProD2 leaders Racing Metro secure in the automatic promotion slot, the real interest regarding Top 14’s make-up next season is which team will accompany them up?

This will be decided via a four-team play-off, with six teams currently vying to join SU Agen (76pts) and SCA Albi (74pts) for the last two berths.

ProD2 Table