Top 14: Endgame - The race for the play-offs hots up as nine teams fight for six positions

02 March 2010

With six more rounds to go there is a theoretical maximum of 30 points still to play for in Top 14, so as the season draws to its climax FRC takes a peek at the future to see what it could behold.

There are two distinct areas of interest with the first (which we are looking at today) being who will make the top six, thereby qualifying for the newly expanded league play-offs as well as next season's Heineken Cup. Realistically there are nine teams trying to claim the six slots, with the current incumbents being pursued by the not inconsiderable trio of Stade Francais, Brive and Biarritz.

The other main focal point is relegation, with two teams set to depart for ProD2 in the summer. Basement club SCA Albi were promoted via the play-offs last season, but their struggles have been aplenty in Top 14 this season. With 17 defeats from 20 they are all but mathematically down, so the real question is which team will join them?

Until last weekend it appeared that either Bourgoin or Bayonne would be the team most likely to accompany them, but the former's crucial home win against the Basques has now dragged the likes of Montauban and Montpellier into the survival fight.

The Play-Offs - The incumbents

In previous seasons the play-offs have been a straight semi-final affair for the four best teams in Top 14, but this season there have been two significant changes. That number has now been enlarged to six, but with the top two gaining automatic byes into the semi-finals. As things stand that would mean Castres and Clermont Auvergne going straight through, while Perpignan take on Racing-Métro 92, and Stade Toulousain face this season's nemesis in the shape of Toulon.

Much can and will change between now and the end of the season, but the race for the top six will include all of the above, in addition to Stade Francais, Brive and Biarritz. Those are seriously major clubs facing the prospect of an empty-handed season - and Heineken exclusion.

1 Castres (62pts)
Consistency has been the Castres trademark this season, with the team united in its togetherness under the two coaches Laurent Labit and Laurent Travers. Some individuals have shone brighter than others - most notably Chris Masoe and Romain Teulet - but it's the team ethos that's kept them at the summit. They have surely done enough to secure a play-off berth, but will they finish in the top two? They have revelled in defying their doubters all season and have never lost two matches on the spin, yet their run-in looks tricky indeed. If their unbeaten home record gives grounds for optimism against Brive, Bayonne and Perpignan, then trips to Toulon, Stade Toulousain and Clermont Auvergne are fraught with danger. Could be they get pipped to a top two finish, especially as just one point separates the top three at present. In common with Perpignan and Racing-Métro they also have no European distractions either.
To come: Brive (h), Toulon (a), Bayonne (h), Perpignan (h), Clermont Auvergne (a), Stade Toulousain (a)

2 Clermont Auvergne (61 pts)
Could this be the season for Vern Cotter's perennial bridesmaids? Ten losing finals, including the last three in succession, has left a trail of broken hearts and frustration but 'Les Jaunards' have looked a tougher outfit at times this season, most notably in the Heineken Cup and with their away league win at Stade Toulousain. Their growing number in the France XV is also testament to the club's increasing depth. Two of their three home games are against direct rivals - Perpignan and Castres - perhaps giving them scope for the odd hiccup on the road as they travel to Bayonne, Stade Francais and Biarritz, with all three of those teams hungry for their own points. They also have a daunting away trip to Leinster in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals, a match that will undoubtedly have a large impact on their season in one way or another.
To come: Perpignan (h), Bayonne (a), Montpellier (h), Stade Francais (a), Castres (h), Biarritz (a)
 

3 Perpignan (61 pts)
Defending champions Perpignan have blown hot and cold all season, and looking at their results it's not hard to identify the problem. They have Top 14's only 100% home win record - with 10 out of 10 - but have lost seven of their 10 away games, even going down to the likes of Bourgoin, SCA Albi, Montpellier and most recently Montauban. Their away for in Europe was even more catastrophic, losing all three games, including their opener at Italian side Benetton Treviso. Their dodgy away form has meant the Catalans have yet to record more than three successive league wins this season, and yet they remain just one point off the summit. Perhaps they are saving their best until last, but with away trips to Clermont Auvergne, Castres and Toulon they cannot afford to take anything for granted.
To come: Clermont Auvergne (a), Biarritz (h), Stade Francais (h), Castres (a), Toulon (a), SCA Albi (h)

4 Stade Toulousain (56 pts)
There's no doubt that Guy Noves targeted a top two finish at the start of the season, but successive home defeats - to Clermont Auvergne and Toulon - has left the 17-time champions distinctly off balance as the season draws in. This weekend they travel to Paris to take on Stade Francais in a game that could prove pivotal to both, while also acting as a tasty prelude to their forthcoming Heineken Cup squabble - back in Toulouse at the beginning of April. They must also journey to Biarritz and Bourgoin, while a final day showdown with Castres could have significance. They would expect to beat Montpellier and Racing-Métro at home, but then this season has been all about disproving expectancies. The reality is that they go into the final six matches with just a solitary point lead over Toulon, and a mere two over Racing.
To come: Stade Francais (a), Montpellier (h), Biarritz (a), Racing-Métro (h), Bourgoin (a), Castres (h)

5 Toulon (55 pts)
Big-spending Toulon have backed up their president's investment with an excellent return so far, as they've climbed to fifth in the table, and earned a home quarter-final against the Scarlets in the ACC. Their undoubted strength has been their impregnability at the Stade Félix Mayol - where they remain undefeated this season - and with four of their last six league games at home they are largely in control of their own destiny. What will also please head coach Philippe Saint-André is that they have also started picking up notable away wins, with recent victories at Stade Francais and Stade Toulousain underlining their durability. So a top six spot appears theirs for the losing as things stand right now, a prospect that could help induce yet more players to sign as they look to nail down qualification for next season's Heineken Cup.
To come: Biarritz (h), Castres (h), Bourgoin (a), Bayonne (h), Perpignan (h), Brive (a)

6 Racing-Métro 92 (54 pts)
Pierre Berbizier's outfit currently have a five-point advantage over seventh-placed Stade Francais, but with their final game away to the Parisians they would be advised to make hay now in an effort to avoid potential last-day dramas. In that regard the fixture list has been kind to them, although away trips to Montpellier and Montauban will not be straightforward. But Racing have shown a steadfastness that few predicted at the beginning of the campaign and their self-belief should also have been boosted by their recent home win against Clermont Auvergne and 24-24 draw with leaders Castres. As ever, the influence of their big three - Sébastien Chabal, Francois Steyn and Lionel Nallet - is likely to be crucial, but so will that of impressive fly-half Jonathan Wisniewski, who's created a handy habit of kicking vital points.
To come: Montpellier (a), Montauban (a), Brive (h), Stade Toulousain (a), Biarritz (h), Stade Francais (a)

Top Six - The Pretenders

7 Stade Francais (49 points)
The Heineken Cup without glamour club Stade Francais would be a poorer competition, but that is the very real prospect facing Max Guazzini's club despite all the cash the multi-millionaire president continues to pour in. This has been a largely forgettable season for the Parisians, what with the sacking of Ewen McKenzie, the long bans for Julien Dupuy and David Attoub, and their wretched playing inconsistency. Now they are contemplating two must-win games against Stade Toulousain that will either make or break their season. The first is at the Stade de France this weekend as they welcome Guy Noves' side to the capital, while the second is back in Toulouse for the Heineken Cup quarter-final in April. If they lose both then their season is effectively over, but victory in one or either should be enough to maintain interest a little further. Not that it's all about Stade Toulousain - James Haskell and company also face daunting trips to Perpignan and Brive, while they are also set for another date at the Stade de France when Clermont Auvergne come to town. With so little room for manoeuvre they simply cannot afford to drop more points, but their run-in looks as difficult as any of the top nine teams.
To come: Stade Toulousain (h), Brive (a), Perpignan (a), Clermont Auvergne (h), SCA Albi (a), Racing-Métro 92 (h)
 

8 Brive (47 points)
That Brive are still in contention for a top six place after such a disastrous first half to the season speaks volumes about their mid-season turnaround. For that new head coach Ugo Mola must take much credit and the Limousin club will also have fond memories of how they nicked sixth place (from Bayonne) on the final day of last season. As with all contenders on this page they must win all of their remaining home games - against Stade Francais, Bourgoin and Toulon - and then look to pick up points on their travels, although visits to Castres, Racing-Métro and Bayonne will be hard destinations to crack. But they need to make up a minimum of seven points to try and squeeze into the top six, and that is a mighty gap given the current form and standings of those above them.
To come: Castres (a), Stade Francais (h), Racing-Métro (a), Bourgoin (h), Bayonne (a), Toulon (h) 

9 Biarritz (46 points)
The Basques have been a perfect dichotomy this season - roaring ahead to success on the European front, where they were the first team to qualify for the Heineken Cup quarter-finals, while simultaneously tripping up on the domestic front. Now they have it all to do with an eight-point gap between themselves and Racing, who they travel to play in mid-April. They must also go away to leaders Toulon (this weekend) as well as defending champions Perpignan (the weekend after), meaning the next fortnight could effectively determine their season. There is also the Heineken Cup quarter-final against the Ospreys to contemplate, and it seems increasingly likely that game prove the only viable path for Biarritz to secure their place among Europe's elite next season. Even their home league games look fraught with danger, as they welcome both Stade Toulousain and Clermont Auvergne - as well as Montauban - so the prospect of having to win the Heineken Cup to secure next season's qualification is looking a more and more likely scenario.
To come: Toulon (a), Perpignan (a), Stade Toulousain (h), Montauban (h), Racing-Métro (a), Clermont Auvergne (h) 

Later this week - Relegation: Who's for the drop?

© Copyright FrenchRugbyClub.com. All rights reserved.