Top 14, r24 preview: Last-chance saloon for Biarritz and Brive, as Racing face Toulouse

31 March 2010

Top 14, Round 24 fixtures (Current league position in brackets)

Stade Toulousain (5th)

Racing-Métro 92 (6th)

Stade Ernest Wallon, 02/04/10, 20.45

The spectre of next weekend's Heineken Cup quarter-finals looms large over this fixture, with Stade Toulousain no doubt keen to (a) put in a good performance but also (b) preserve their energies and protect against any more unwanted injuries. Guy Noves' team has already lost Frédéric Michalak and Yves Donguy for the remainder of this season, while the multi-skilled Jean-Baptiste Elissalde has still not returned since going down injured while training with France two months back. Racing will hope to capitalise on Stade's desire for self-preservation, knowing that a victory here would essentially guarantee their presence in the play-offs. To that end they will take heart from their 27-20 triumph against Stade earlier in the season, while also noting that Noves' team has lost two of its last three home games in the league - albeit against high-flyers Clermont Auvergne and Toulon. The problem for Racing is that Pierre Berbizier's side has lost its last three away games in Top 14 and is stuttering (rather than striding) towards the play-offs. Last weekend's 25-18 home win against Brive gave them some slack, but defeat here would set up a humdinger of a home clash against Biarritz in Round 25. If qualification remains up for grabs after that then the Parisians must travel across the city to take on Stade Francais in their final league match. But Berbizier's task is to focus his troops' minds on the now, rather than the future, with the knowledge that even a defensive bonus could prove crucial come the season's end. As for Toulouse, they have the added incentive of knowing that a home win could lift them to within a couple of points of the top two, with joint leaders Castres and Perpignan set to meet at the Stade Pierre Antoine on Saturday evening.
This season:
Racing-Métro 27 Stade Toulousain 20
Verdict: Stade Toulousain win
Remaining games
Stade Toulousain: Bourgoin (a), Castres (h)
Racing-Métro 92: Biarritz (h), Stade Francais (a)
 

Montpellier (13th)

SCA Albi (14th)

Stade Yves du Manoir, 03/04/10, 14.30

Relegation-threatened Montpellier made their priorities clear when fielding a weakened team away to Clermont last weekend, so they have no excuses for not taking maximum points at home to basement club SCA Albi on Saturday. The under-pressure Hérault club simply must get five points from this encounter. If that is achieved then the Mediterranean side will have 47 points come Saturday evening, a total which could be enough to see them climb above Bayonne (43, away to Toulon), Bourgoin (45, away to Brive) and Montauban (45, away to Biarritz). The fact they then play Montauban (a) and Bourgoin (h) in their final two matches would mean they have their destiny in their own hands and (for my money) should be good enough to stave off the threat of going down. So, it will be down to France fly-half Francois Trinh-Duc to get his back line running on Saturday, with tries being the order of the day against an Albi side which has now lost its last eight league games and has failed to register a single victory on the road all season.
This season:
SCA Albi 15 Montpellier 18
Verdict: Montpellier win
Remaining games
Montpellier: Montauban (a), Bourgoin (h)
SCA Albi: Stade Francais (h), Perpignan (a)

Toulon (4th)

Bayonne (12th)

Stade Félix Mayol, 03/04/10, 14.30

Bayonne have won four of their last six league games but still go into this match with the threat of relegation looming large. Last weekend's 26-10 loss at Castres has left them just one point ahead of 13th-placed Montpellier, but the latter have a home game against whipping boys Albi on Saturday, so Bayonne are most definitely under pressure to perform. The trouble for Christian Gajan's team is that no side has emerged with victory at the Stade Félix Mayol for over a year now, and Toulon have their own agenda (qualifying in the top two) which also requires a victory. Philippe Saint-André's side are France's in-form outfit at present, going into this match on the back of a six-game winning streak dating back to the start of the year. The contrast between the two clubs was highlighted perfectly this week with cash-rich Toulon being linked with yet another stellar signing - this time Springbok Bakkies Botha - while Bayonne saw one of their own gems - Benjamin Fall - commit to Racing-Métro for next season. Perhaps the best that Bayonne can hope for is a defensive bonus point, but even if they achieve that they are still likely to be back in the bottom two come the end of the weekend.
This season:
Bayonne 8 Toulon 14
Verdict: Toulon win
Remaining games
Toulon: Perpignan (h), Brive (a)
Bayonne: Brive (h), Montauban (a)

Brive (8th)

Bourgoin (11th)

Stade Amédée Domenech, 03/04/10, 14.30

There's no doubting that last weekend's 25-18 loss at Racing was a massive blow to Brive's top six ambitions, but the Limousin club has not given up all hope just yet - and quite rightly. They may be seven points off the Parisians going into Round 24 but a home win here could once more put them within striking distance of Berbizier's side (which travels to Stade Toulousain). And Brive have form going into this clash, having registered wins in their last five home games - including the notable scalps of Stade Toulousain, Perpignan and Stade Francais. Bourgoin's plight was darkened by last weekend's home loss against Toulon, and the under-pressure Isere club must find yet another massive result to stave off the spectre of relegation. But it may not come here - where Brive have found their form of late - which would leave them scrambling for points in their final two games - at home to Stade Toulousain and away to Montpellier. That latter fixture has gathered increasing significance over recent weeks and now looks likely to be a last-day shootout for Top 14 survival, unless Bourgoin can somehow defy the odds and come away with a win from Brive. The visitors are certainly not without hope after registering significant away victories at Montauban, Albi and (most impressively) Racing-Métro already this season, but Brive's hunger for a play-off slot is likely to win out at the Stade Amédée Domenech on Saturday afternoon.
This season:
Bourgoin 14 Brive 14
Verdict: Brive win
Remaining games
Brive: Bayonne (a), Toulon (h)
Bourgoin: Stade Toulousain (h), Montpellier (a)

Biarritz (7th)

Montauban (10th)

Stade Parcs des Sports Aguiléra, 03/04/10, 14.30

The significance of Biarritz's 26-10 home win against Stade Toulousain last Saturday will become clearer by the end of this weekend. Was it merely a morale-boosting victory in the build-up to the Heineken Cup quarterfinals, or was it the start of an end-of-season surge that could culminate in qualification for the league play-offs? Serge Blanco hopes it is the latter, but for that to occur there is no room for mistakes against a Montauban side battling for its very Top 14 survival. Marc Raynaud's side travel to the Basque heartland on the back of three wins in four, but they still find themselves just three points off the dreaded drop-zone. Defeat here could narrow that margin further, although the coach will take heart from the fact their remaining two games are both at home, and both against fellow relegation rivals - Montpellier and Bayonne. Biarritz would love to rest some of their stars ahead of their Heineken clash with the Ospreys, but circumstances (or their previous erratic form) simply do not allow them that luxury. Victory here could lift them to within two points of sixth-placed Racing-Métro (who travel to Stade Toulousain) and thus set up a crackerjack fixture between the two play-off wannabes in a fortnight's time.  The Basques have been keen to play down the significance of last weekend's win in the build-up to this game, with international centre Damien Traille stressing that "we must forget the victory against Toulouse to avoid the mistake of complacency". His cautionary words are valid as inconsistency has Biarritz's trademark this campaign, with the Basques failing to register three successive league wins since hitting a purple patch back in October 2009.
This season:
Montauban 14 Biarritz 5
Verdict: Biarritz win
Remaining games
Biarritz: Racing-Métro 92 (a), Clermont Auvergne (h)
Montauban: Montpellier (h), Bayonne (h)

Stade Francais (9th)

Clermont Auvergne (3rd)

Stade de France, 03/04/10, 16.25

Where do you start when looking at Stade Francais? A heady cocktail of poor form, an unexpected dip in financial results and an ongoing injury crisis has culminated in endless headlines of late, not eased by the fact that incoming director or rugby Michael Cheika will also be their third head coach in less than 12 months. Stability is usually the key to most successful sporting teams - look at Stade Toulousain, or Manchester United - but the Parisians have been riding in choppy waters for some time now. Of all the facts and stats surrounding their season of woe it is the one which says only already-relegated SCA Albi have won fewer league games which illustrates their struggles best. That is a shocking revelation for a club with such resources, both playing and financial. Three of their 11 league losses have come in home fixtures, with two of those (against Stade Toulousain and Perpignan) being games held at the Stade de France. They are back at the national stadium again on Saturday afternoon as they welcome free-scoring Clermont Auvergne to the capital, and if form is anything to go by then we should be in for another entertaining affair. These two sides are the only ones to have have scored more than 500 points in the league this season, but the major difference between them has been in the points conceded column. Stade may have amassed 516, but they have also conceded 507 - leaving them with a negligible points differential of +9. Clermont, by contrast, are +226, having scored 583 but only conceded 357. They will journey to the capital in good heart after last week's resounding 41-3 demolition of Montpellier, but their forthcoming Heineken Cup quarter-final at Leinster could determine team selection. Stade, of course, are also in the H Cup's last eight, but they simply cannot afford to rest players as defeat here would further undermine their increasingly fragile confidence.
This season:
Clermont Auvergne 19 Stade Francais 19
Verdict: Stade Francais win
Remaining games
Stade Francais: SCA Albi (a), Racing-Métro 92 (h)
Clermont Auvergne: Castres (h), Biarritz (h)

Castres (2nd)

Perpignan (1st)

Stade Pierre Antoine, 03/04/10, 20.45

The weekend's final game sees the league's joint-leaders go head-to-head as Castres welcome defending champions Perpignan to the Stade Pierre Antoine. Both teams are level on 71 points, but with Clermont a mere point further back the race for the top two - and a bye into the play-off semi-finals - has reached a potentially decisive juncture. Castres will be out to protect their unbeaten home record this season, especially as this will be their final league game at the Stade Pierre Antoine, but Perpignan will travel free from the pressures of the Heineken Cup after exiting that competition in the pool stages. An away win here would effectively seal their semi-final berth, although they do face a tricky trip to Toulon in Round 25. Castres also have a difficult culmination to what has been a so-far outstanding campaign, with successive away games at Clermont and Stade Toulousain. They can rest assured they have already qualified for the play-offs, but there has been much talk this week of trying to ensure momentum through to the season's end. The respective boots of Romain Teulet and Jérôme Porical are bound to have a significant impact on the result, but the Catalans looked in ominous form as they ran in seven tries past hapless Stade Francais last weekend.
This season:
Perpignan 17 Castres 15
Verdict: Perpignan win
Remaining games
Castres: Clermont Auvergne (a), Stade Toulousain (h)
Perpignan: Toulon (a), SCA Albi (h)

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